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Archive for July, 2013

Signs of a REAL RECOVERY

BUYING GOLD/SILVER, GOLD & SILVER, GOLD AND MONEY, SOCIAL UNREST, STOCKS AND GOLD/SILVER   No comments yet

Signs are a forewarning that something important is soon to happen. Arm numbness could be a sign of a heart attack. Night sweats could be an early sign of diabetes. Lately I’ve been searching for signs of a real economic recovery. How else can we explain the latest gold/silver decline, all while the DOW posts another new high, other than a true recovery, right? After all, the great metal sell-off of 2013 can only be attributed to a new found level of economic faith.

Is the city of Detroit a sign of economic recovery? Detroit dropped from a circa 1950ish population of just under two million to less than 700k today. No one counting can be surprised by the bankruptcy of a city when it loses over half of its middle class and industry all while simultaneously growing the state’s pension obligations. Detroit is certainly not a sign of recovery as we watch poverty overtake what was once declared the city of great opportunity.

Nearly half of the wealth of American is stored in real estate. The lion’s share of this wealth rests in single-family homes known as a principal residence. But just as we’re led to believe the great housing recovery is unstoppable (housing bubble 2.0) news of a recent major decline in new mortgage applications say otherwise. Is it possible our great housing recovery could be upended by a 1% increase in mortgage rates?

The signs of a housing recovery are few and far between when the three denominators holding RE values together are cheap money, faith, and leverage.

What is a house worth, in municipalities like Detroit, after stigmatized by bankruptcy? The value of your home is directly affected by the health, and obligation, of your state and local economy.

The anti-recovery list grows longer. The new-found affordability of the Affordable Care Act has to be a sign of recovery, yes? Cities collapsing under the strain of long-term debt and unfunded liabilities have to be a sign of recovery, too. The fact we’ve reached the point of unbridled QE must be the truest sign of real economic recovery.

Why Silver & Gold will rise!!

The positive signs of economic recovery presented by today’s media are nothing more than a monetary distraction. Most individuals have reached a point of no longer willing to think for themselves, not to mention the ability to question those who put motive over principle. If the media or internet says so then it must be true.

I know my stack of PMs will take care of my family’s future for one reason only; what most folks view as financially stable is supported by the ability to create (borrow, print, or tax) currency. Everything from social programs, pensions, real estate values, stocks, banks, etc have reached the point of fiat dependency. This recovery is as real as any structure built upon a foundation of debt leaving no other choice but print of die.

Only the minority now buck this trend of nonstop quantitative easing. The rest, the majority, only argue over how to spend it. Think about this for a moment, please. Can you imagine the Detroit inferno if the evening news reported a significant reduction in social services, section 8 housing, food stamps, disability, etc.? What if a politician announced a monetary commitment to stop deficit spending altogether? The clip below answers it best.

Not only would city streets in every major city burn but the outcry from those invested in paper assets would be so great that the very life of the one proposing such a foolish plan would be in jeopardy.

This “jeopardy” is why your stack of physical silver and gold must rise just to keep a natural order of monetary balance and buying power. The United States, most countries too, have reached the point of no other option than print to appease, both politically and economically speaking.

I know TPS has mentioned this before but we are long past the point of arguing if metal will rise. It must rise, and will rise, as our nation accepts we are to the point of print or burn.  TPS recently posted how debt has become a threat to our national security. I’ll go as far to say the domestic threat outweighs the foreign threat when we calculate the growing number of our entitled.

COMMENT:  I personally believe the gold bugs are about to be squashed – maybe less than $1000 an ounce!!

TPS Reply:  Thanks for the comment. If every prudent person sitting on physical gold had to sell now then “yes”, the gold bugs are soon to be squashed, at least the most recent buyers. But your theory has one giant hole in it when we consider that few bugs are sellers. In fact, many are out buying discounted precious metal.

Let me guess, the DOW is your suggested new opportunity of safe haven? If so, what happens to the value of today’s DJIA if not for perpetual QE? What happens when the DOW has to stand on its own monetary merit? Will the 2008 DOW meltdown pale in comparison when those with wealth realize it’s nothing more than a paper promise?

Bernanke’s pile of printed money supports Wall Street because the lion’s share of this fiat rests on Wall Street. Of course investors in return support WS because they have little choice other than follow the next bubble; can’t you see this? I, for one, will side with the gold bugs by taking my chances with sound money (according to our US Constitution & 5000 years of history).

QUESTION:  In your last post, Fake Money Threatens our National Security, you mention the word “printing” but this is inaccurate. The money is nothing more than a digit, not only is it fiat but it doesn’t exist at all…. literally. Your point is noted but you should clarify. Thanks for what you do!!

TPS Reply:  Great point, thanks. You’re correct, less than 1/2% of cash deposited actually exists. This number can vary but never anywhere close to a percentage that would make most depositors comfortable. This is why the banking world is deathly afraid of a bank run similar to what happened in Cyprus.

This is also why I recommend keeping most liquidity in cash, silver, or gold form. In my opinion, at least 1/3 of this wealth should be within arm’s reach safely stored in-house or with someone trusted. I wish more folks understood the fragile nature of today’s banking world, fractional reserve lending (banking), fiat currency, and, of course, real money.

Good for you and thanks for the reminder!!  By the way to all readers, if this sounds like an overreaction just research the words “bail-in” as it relates to today’s banking institutions. Why not take a proactive stance while this option still exists?

 

DC Carlton is founder of The Prospector Site and author of the Amazon Kindle #1 Bestsellers Why Silver and Gold Will Go Higher and Storing Silver & Gold. If you’re looking for trustworthy PM assistance feel free to contact DC regarding his personalized consulting service. TPS doesn’t sell silver or gold; we represent you, the buyer, looking for affordable precious metal from honest trustworthy sources. Feel free to register here for his free online newsletter that provides precious metal insight rarely mentioned from mainstream media sources.

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Fake Money Threatens our National Security, again!

BUYING GOLD/SILVER, GOLD & REAL ESTATE, GOLD AND MONEY, SELLING GOLD/SILVER, STOCKS AND GOLD/SILVER   No comments yet

Does the name Sam Upham ring a historical bell? Mr. Upham imprinted his name into history books in the most unusual fashion. In fact, Mr. Upham learned, well before Mr. Bernanke I should add, that the power to print is more profitable than the effort to work. Maybe this is why our gentleman of the hour printed nearly 15 million counterfeit Confederate dollars during this country’s Civil War over 150 years ago. Some respected historians believe our Civil War’s outcome was offhandedly determined by one “Yankee scoundrel” with the power to print money.

History is a road map seldom followed. So many readers are asking what it will take for physical PM (precious metal) to rise without questioning what happens when fake money rules the world. Like a wave building, the ill effects of fiat printing will soon position those holding sound money into a posture of wealth accumulation. Our country’s history is the only proof needed.

I would like to expand our history lesson for a paragraph, or two, before comparing a circa 1862 American currency to today’s precious metal alternative. The Confederate South created a fiat currency to afford a war. This new fiat currency, commonly called Confederate dollars, held no gold restraint because of a 100% reliance (sound familiar?) on those with the power to print.

Over creation, or over printing Confederate dollars led to rapid inflation as confidence in the money dropped all while volumes of Confederate dollars increased. It is worth mentioning that the cost of a man’s suit ran just under $3000 Confederate dollars as inflation gripped……. and then crushed this fiat money of the South.

For the record, the aforementioned Mr. Upham didn’t work for the Confederate Treasury. In fact, Mr. Upham was nothing more than a money bootlegger who realized the potential of combining cheap paper with barrels of ink. His ability to create fake money accelerated the Confederate currency into an inflationary spiral that led to the end of the Civil War!!!

I’m not a conspiracy theorist but it’s worth mentioning Mr. Upham was never caught, even with a $10k bounty on his head, and rumored to be protected by our country’s secret service till his death, hmm.

NATIONAL SECURITY:

Not a day passes without the mention of our country’s national security. The War on Terror rages long after September 2001 and the argument of a safer world is debatable. Less debatable are the costs of wars under the pretense of national security. To put it bluntly, we continue to borrow/print money in order to fight rotating wars.

The parallels between an extinct Confederate currency and today’s US dollar have reached an undeniable state of similarity.  The very act of overproducing our currency is now a compromise to our national security. This realization grows more haunting when we factor growing Middle Eastern tension and other threats of war.

Only a thin line separates the power to print, and then wage war, with the vulnerability of over creating a fiat currency that intensifies the threat to our national security. The Federal Reserve Bank promotes control but their actions say otherwise.

I’m not sure who tomorrow’s history will blame for the demise of today’s reserve currency. Will we print our dollar to death in order to sustain our consumer-based economy or will we destroy our currency in the name of national security while fighting never-ending wars?

Regardless why, physical silver and gold will protect the wealth of the few willing to accept today’s historical monetary lesson.

QUESTION:  DC, are we talking about someday trading pricey PMs back into a fiat currency (US Dollars)? Not sure I’m comfortable exchanging sound money for paper promises.

TPS Reply: Thanks for the comment and question; not a week passes without someone asking the same “what to do when it’s time to move on” question. You are correct, there will come a time to leverage wealth stored in silver/gold for another asset. We often envision this step, or process, transitioning through dollars first but this most likely will not be the case.

Complications arise the minute we convert an asset back into dollars. This complication could be a tax consequence (red flags or capital gains), wealth exposure, even security issues. The word that comes to mind is discretion. Discretion is a key component to owning, storing, and someday trading precious metal.

It’s worth mentioning that the same forces soon to propel PM higher will also have an adverse effect on other assets now over leveraged; real estate, stocks, and many businesses are a perfect example. When a business or property becomes overly leveraged it becomes vulnerable to a decline in revenue. The burden of leverage remains the same even if profits decline. This is the number one reason small businesses fail when a consumer-based economy cuts back on spending.

The potential to buy (trade) severely discounted property, stock, and businesses for precious metal will increase over this decade and probably the next, too. Those storing wealth in silver and gold will eventually realize the financial benefit of trading PM for another distressed asset. This trade bypasses the need to liquidate PMs into dollars, if structured properly.

This site will discuss many other options to trade, or sell, physical silver and gold in the near future. Thanks for the question.

QUESTION:  How does someone new to PMs know the best time to buy? I hear experts mention a “bottom” but how is the bottom recognizable?

TPS Reply:  Great question, thanks. The PM bottom is not recognizable…….. anyone claiming to know differently is nothing more than a paid PM spokesman. Too many forces now control day to day PM fluctuations, unfortunately. This means we must keep our eye on the long-term goal of wealth preservation by creating our own personal gold standard.

If you’re new to PM, and unprotected, please consider buying ASAP. No one knows when some event will push our economy to the brink…… just like the days in September 2008. The world’s banking institutions are now risky investment houses and highly leveraged. Sure central banks have rolled billions in dollars of liquidity into some banks but this cushion is pale compared to the exposure of most financial institutions.

My opinion is regardless the price paid PMs are worth it, especially when we consider the potential to preserve wealth ever so discretely. No need complicating this gift by guessing an actual PM bottom that will someday soon seem irrelevant.

Contrarily, I often recommend those PM protected to exercise patience when adding to their growing stack. The trend of late is declining. This means, in all probability, the same dollars will buy more metal in the very near future but only recommended for those already PM protected. Thanks for the question, and reading TPS.

 

DC Carlton is founder of The Prospector Site and author of the Amazon Kindle #1 Bestsellers Why Silver and Gold Will Go Higher and Storing Silver & Gold. If you’re looking for trustworthy PM assistance feel free to contact DC regarding his personalized consulting service. TPS doesn’t sell silver or gold; we represent you, the buyer, looking for affordable precious metal from honest trustworthy sources. Feel free to register here for his free online newsletter that provides precious metal insight rarely mentioned from mainstream media sources.

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PRECIOUS METAL: PROTECTION OR PROFIT?

BUYING GOLD/SILVER, GOLD AND MONEY, STOCKS AND GOLD/SILVER   No comments yet

September 2008 was not a good month for most DJIA investors. It took less than seven September hours to drain $1.2 trillion from shareholders as the DOW index experienced a meltdown the likes Charles Dow never considered possible. Today’s gold decline reminds me of September 08′s DJIA in many ways. The same fear, same economic darkness, the same “will values ever come back?“, too.

I have no idea what prompts you to read a blog like TPS (The Prospector Site). Some read for assurance, some search for protection, and some want nothing more than to leverage gold/silver for profit. The latter are greatly disappointed as of summer 2013; my fear is this disappointment has a short shelf life.

Brave DOW investors who beat back the uncertainty of 2008 were well rewarded. These vivacious souls understood a 7617 point DOW drop over a few weeks could equal huge returns for those more focused on profit than protection.

After all, it’s always the few who stand strong that profit the most while all others run for the exits.

I’m no DOW fan, but it’s undeniable that investors have profited greatly since the days of 2008 volatility. Is it possible these same brave investors realized that stock holdings within profitable companies should not have declined in such a waterfall fashion, as they did fall 2008? Smart stock investors realized that such a bargain was a closing window of discounted opportunity.

Today’s physical silver or gold opportunity reminds me of the discounted blue-chip stock offerings of late 2008. I won’t speculate when precious metal prices will rebound but I can guarantee one thing. An ounce of physical silver, or gold, is worth far more today than what a person can buy it for, just like a 2008 blue chip stock.

Profit or protection:

If you’re protection minded, PM speaking, then the latest PM price drop means little…… maybe even nothing. Your plan is all about long-term fiscal prudence all while realizing a currency built on overpopulation (printing) cannot sustain value or buying power forever. A temporary waterfall decline within your PM plan – although disheartening – means little when compared to your plan of preservation, self-reliance, and independence.

The PM protectionist views profitability as a byproduct of wealth preservation. They also view the ability to transport wealth as an avenue to rebuild after a currency and government prove themselves as less permanent than what 99% of our neighbors would like to believe. The fact is history has not ruled in favor of print friendly economies or fiat currencies, never.

July 2013 is extremely unique for those who still trust physical PM. Generally I write from a precious metal long-term point of view, you probably already know this. But today’s PM opportunity is on the verge of presenting a shorter term position for profitability. If this is of interest……. please read on.

From this point forward I want to be perfectly clear. This writing creation you’re reading is presented, and should be interpreted, as a form of short-term speculation. Speculation is nothing more than a tally of risk compared to monetary reward and only played by those who can truly afford it.

We are soon to hit a PM bottom, this I’m sure of. I don’t know when or how low but the price of physical silver or gold will soon change her recent course. When it does the potential for quick profit is very real, but still not for everyone. Make sure you don’t confuse long-term PM prudence with the risks of speculation.

QUESTION: I hate to ask but must, have we reached a bottom for gold? Oil prices are zooming but precious metal prices are still in decline. Care to speculate?

TPS Reply:  Thanks for asking, and reading TPS. “No”, my opinion is we’re not out of this temporary fog of PM volatility and gold prices could fall accordingly. It’s impossible to predict how many weeks or months this downtrend will last. But it will end and when it does paper investors will drum a rhythm of precious metal opportunity, and the bulls will run again. We’ve seen this many times before and this time will be no different.

As mentioned over the last couple of posts; I’m not buying silver or gold at this point. I’m storing the cash just like I would PM waiting for the PM market to stabilize. Why buy now when the same dollars will buy more ounces, most likely, in the very near future? I can do this because I’m already PM protected. What about you?

Now, as for your crude question, oil that is. The situation in Egypt is stirring oil uncertainty and we can only speculate how this volatility will translate into pump prices. My guess, this is only a sign of the times and I’m personally not expecting cheaper pump prices anytime soon. Will rising crude prices drag PM prices up, very possible but not worth betting the farm, IMO?

Some economists believe a rising dollar index has more to do with the current price of precious metal far over anything else. I won’t disagree, but believe the PM decline we’ve watched since April of 2013 has as much to do with a paper PM sell-off dragging down physical values too. Regardless, both forces are only temporarily influential over the long term.

 

DC Carlton is founder of The Prospector Site and author of the Amazon Kindle #1 Bestsellers Why Silver and Gold Will Go Higher and Storing Silver & Gold. If you’re looking for trustworthy PM assistance feel free to contact DC regarding his personalized consulting service. TPS doesn’t sell silver or gold; we represent you, the buyer, looking for affordable precious metal from honest trustworthy sources. Feel free to register here for his free online newsletter that provides precious metal insight rarely mentioned from mainstream media sources.

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