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PM FREEFALL: What should you do?

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Are you losing faith in physical silver? The question I hear most is “why”. Why are precious metal prices dropping when all the fundamentals are in place for it to rise? International economic volatility, threat of regional wars turning worldly, a flood of paper currency; the list is long and growing. The answer, my friends, is obvious, yet concerning, and the topic of today’s post.

It is unfortunate that we invest so much time, effort, and space in order to justify the only tried and true worldwide currency.  I agree, it’s impossible to ignore such  volatile erosion as we’ve witnessed over the last few months. No doubt this decline is disheartening to those new to PM (precious metal). For this reason alone we’ll invest time and space in hopes of answering why silver is dropping, should you buy now, and when silver will rise again.

Anyone with $11,700 can buy 500 ounces of American Silver Eagle bullion and have it shipped to their door (or local USPS). Comparing today’s silver offering to March 2011 is astonishing, to say the least. I founded TPS (The Prospector Site) in 2011 when the same 500 bullion ounces sold for over $21,000…… crazy! Precious metal experts, who coincidentally also pedal bullion related assets, can spin it anyway they desire but the loss, at least at this point, is very real.

In Why Silver & Gold Will Go Higher I expose the mystery behind silver and gold’s true value. Each coin in existence has literally two sides, value speaking. The first side is intrinsic, or has inherit value. The intrinsic value includes the grand total of effort to mine, mint, and distribute each PM ounce. No different than the land, concrete, lumber, wire, roofing and labor value it takes to build a home or an apartment.

The second side of a metal coin offers value too, but this value is much more subjective than the intrinsic counter side. This side is all about demand, nothing more. If demand raises so does the coin’s value. If demand declines well, I guess, today’s PM market is the best proof as we all watch silver/gold retreat.

So how can prices fall if demand for physical metal is up? After all, today’s PM peddlers and experts talk little other than how worldwide demand for PM is through the roof, right? If true, then why has gold declined from just under $1800 to less than $1300 per volatile ounce? The answer to these questions goes far beyond the paper manipulation argument so commonly made by the PM faithful.

PM manipulation?

The words “manipulation” and “precious metal” play over and over again reminding us of a late-night HBO movie. You’ve undoubtedly read countless articles – written by PM aficionados – that repeatedly prove how PMs fall victim to Wall Street entities like JP Morgan and other “cartel”. I have no doubt Wall Street giants work the PM system but this doesn’t explain why physical precious metal is falling.

Physical silver and gold are in decline because PM can’t compete with today’s level of money printing. Never before are so many currencies simultaneously committed to printing fiat in order to appease a rising tide of concern. This printing offers a false sense of financial security, built on a foundation of debt, which only temporarily relieves the inevitable correction soon to fall upon each of us. Nevertheless, printing money to artificially support handpicked assets hasn’t bode well for gold holders.

Never underestimate the power to create currency (money).

It is only because of FED support that giant banking institutions (the same who manipulate silver and gold to their advantage) even exist. Remember, these giant Wall Street banking institutions should have disappeared September 2008, and would have if not for the biggest bailout in US history. Organic assets like precious metal cannot compete, not while we have an administration and financial structure hell-bent on picking winners, and therefor losers too.

What to do?

With a deep breath we must ask ourselves, as PM faithful, what to do. Obviously, we can’t fight the billion dollar status quo toe to toe. Nonstop bitching won’t help either. Far too many promote staying the PM course but with silver $19ish and gold $1200ish I for one no longer support, at least without question, staying a course that hasn’t worked for some time now.

I own both silver and gold and have for many years. But if I were new to PM, and didn’t own physical, I would buy some now, just in case something black swanish happened in the near future, but keep most powder dry until prices stabilize. But for those looking to add more physical I’m not so sure I’d be in a big hurry to stack more, not with such PM volatility. Here is why.

Folks have lost faith in PM. This hasn’t helped support prices in the least. Eventually low metal prices will discourage mining output and this disruption will dry metal inventories. I truly thought demand alone would vaporize such a limited inventory of PM but this isn’t the case. When miners can no longer profit they will decrease output. A decreased output of physical metal will do more to separate physical from paper than anything else I know. At such a time, physical metal premiums will rise regardless of Wall Street’s paper party.

We must put the age we’re living in context. From the $50k car we drive to the $500k homes we live, they all hold value only because of manipulation thanks to the power to print. This debt won’t and can’t last forever. Eventually something will sever the ability to print and at such time physical PMs will find equilibrium of true value and worth. I base this on history far over my opinion. Not one person walking this earth knows when the fiat printing will cease or no longer work thanks to inflation.

QUESTION: DC. I enjoy and value comments and reply of TPS. I recently overheard a conversation in our local coin shop – ” nobody has any silver” – ” there is a serious shortage of silver” – “silver is constricted” – ” the mints can’t get the raw material” – surely some “PAC MAN” monster didn’t consume all the silver that was out there not TOO long ago.

With spot being 20ish it seems more likely there is a lot of holding and hoarding going on, also I have recently purchased a few MONSTER boxes, so those ASE’s are available with considerable discount from months past. What’s keeping silver at 20ish? Is intervention and manipulation that controlling? I don’t question that silver is suppressed, my question IS WHY and by WHOM. Based on your experience and expertise, how constricted do you think DEALER or secondhand supply will be when silver is $100ish? Also, would you care to guesstimate when $100ish silver will be probable rather than possible?

TPS Reply:  Ah, the questions of when and how much. First, thanks for the great questions. I realize you’ve made a substantial PM investment and certainly have earned the right to ask “why”. For what’s worth……. my long-term PM opinion finds deeper validation with each passing day. In the meantime, PM is as volatile as I’ve seen them.

Let’s dive into your questions. Those selling PM are no different from anyone else selling anything else. Demand is an emotion. If a seller can convince a potential buyer that demand is high, and inventories low, then this potential buyer is more likely to buy. I have no doubt inventories are low but physical silver is still readily available, without a long wait time I should add.

Far too often we hear about a Chinese thirst for PM. Recently a photo of an alleged crowd of 10,000 aligned buyers has circulated the internet all hoping to buy physical gold or silver. I’m not buying it. I’ve done business in China and can tell you for a fact that the Chinese play their cards close to the vest. Sure, the Chinese are buying PM but the truth is this public option has only existed for a few years. Up until recently a Chinese citizen could be imprisoned for buying or possessing physical PM.

The Chinese have but one motive. Their plan is to hoard enough metal to reestablish a gold-backed currency, and this is exactly what they will do. Can you imagine the offering for physical metal when the yuan unseats the USD as a world reserve currency? The one Chinese question still unanswered is will the Chinese have to sell their gold if and when their economy corrects and how will this affect their reserve currency plan? My guess is the Chinese government will confiscate private gold/silver holdings sometime over this decade, just my opinion.

You asked about who is manipulating metal and why. This manipulation is about Wall Street profit more than anything PM personal. For Wall Street, it’s all about making money and few care who is hurt along the way. Our financial system is run by distrustful thugs with little integrity or concern over the hardworking fabric of America.  Central banks benefit, monetarily, and enjoy nothing more than watching a competing currency, like silver and gold, decline. Again, never underestimate the power to print money or those willing to manipulate such power for personal gain.

The true injustice, or risk, of falling metal prices is not a loss of wealth. It is a loss of ounces that concerns me most. When a PM buyer pays more than necessary, because prices drop soon after, this inhibits the ability to buy more ounces for the same dollar exchange. In the long run all PM owners will appreciate such monetary prudence, but this doesn’t help over the short term.

When will we see $100ish silver is like asking when hot water will boil. Silver rising will happen only after the US dollar index declines. The world still invests in the USD and will right up till the point they won’t. Only after the dollar loses trust will silver see $100, then $200, then? I would hate to be shopping for my first physical silver at such an age. Look for the secondary PM market to swallow today’s dealer/broker trade as soon as metal prices rebound.

I was once asked who should buy (own) physical silver or gold. My answer, the best person is the one who buys metal, stores it away, and then lives life like PM never existed. It’s hard to do, for some, but over-analyzing PM will drive a person to drink; we’re living in interesting times no doubt. Thanks for email.

 

DC Carlton is founder of The Prospector Site and author of the Amazon Kindle #1 Bestsellers Why Silver and Gold Will Go Higher and Storing Silver & Gold. If you’re looking for trustworthy PM assistance feel free to contact DC regarding his personalized consulting service. TPS doesn’t sell silver or gold; we represent you, the buyer, looking for affordable precious metal from honest trustworthy sources. Feel free to register here for his free online newsletter that provides precious metal insight rarely mentioned from mainstream media sources.


 

 

 

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