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PRECIOUS METAL: PROTECTION OR PROFIT?

BUYING GOLD/SILVER, GOLD AND MONEY, STOCKS AND GOLD/SILVER   No comments yet

September 2008 was not a good month for most DJIA investors. It took less than seven September hours to drain $1.2 trillion from shareholders as the DOW index experienced a meltdown the likes Charles Dow never considered possible. Today’s gold decline reminds me of September 08′s DJIA in many ways. The same fear, same economic darkness, the same “will values ever come back?“, too.

I have no idea what prompts you to read a blog like TPS (The Prospector Site). Some read for assurance, some search for protection, and some want nothing more than to leverage gold/silver for profit. The latter are greatly disappointed as of summer 2013; my fear is this disappointment has a short shelf life.

Brave DOW investors who beat back the uncertainty of 2008 were well rewarded. These vivacious souls understood a 7617 point DOW drop over a few weeks could equal huge returns for those more focused on profit than protection.

After all, it’s always the few who stand strong that profit the most while all others run for the exits.

I’m no DOW fan, but it’s undeniable that investors have profited greatly since the days of 2008 volatility. Is it possible these same brave investors realized that stock holdings within profitable companies should not have declined in such a waterfall fashion, as they did fall 2008? Smart stock investors realized that such a bargain was a closing window of discounted opportunity.

Today’s physical silver or gold opportunity reminds me of the discounted blue-chip stock offerings of late 2008. I won’t speculate when precious metal prices will rebound but I can guarantee one thing. An ounce of physical silver, or gold, is worth far more today than what a person can buy it for, just like a 2008 blue chip stock.

Profit or protection:

If you’re protection minded, PM speaking, then the latest PM price drop means little…… maybe even nothing. Your plan is all about long-term fiscal prudence all while realizing a currency built on overpopulation (printing) cannot sustain value or buying power forever. A temporary waterfall decline within your PM plan – although disheartening – means little when compared to your plan of preservation, self-reliance, and independence.

The PM protectionist views profitability as a byproduct of wealth preservation. They also view the ability to transport wealth as an avenue to rebuild after a currency and government prove themselves as less permanent than what 99% of our neighbors would like to believe. The fact is history has not ruled in favor of print friendly economies or fiat currencies, never.

July 2013 is extremely unique for those who still trust physical PM. Generally I write from a precious metal long-term point of view, you probably already know this. But today’s PM opportunity is on the verge of presenting a shorter term position for profitability. If this is of interest……. please read on.

From this point forward I want to be perfectly clear. This writing creation you’re reading is presented, and should be interpreted, as a form of short-term speculation. Speculation is nothing more than a tally of risk compared to monetary reward and only played by those who can truly afford it.

We are soon to hit a PM bottom, this I’m sure of. I don’t know when or how low but the price of physical silver or gold will soon change her recent course. When it does the potential for quick profit is very real, but still not for everyone. Make sure you don’t confuse long-term PM prudence with the risks of speculation.

QUESTION: I hate to ask but must, have we reached a bottom for gold? Oil prices are zooming but precious metal prices are still in decline. Care to speculate?

TPS Reply:  Thanks for asking, and reading TPS. “No”, my opinion is we’re not out of this temporary fog of PM volatility and gold prices could fall accordingly. It’s impossible to predict how many weeks or months this downtrend will last. But it will end and when it does paper investors will drum a rhythm of precious metal opportunity, and the bulls will run again. We’ve seen this many times before and this time will be no different.

As mentioned over the last couple of posts; I’m not buying silver or gold at this point. I’m storing the cash just like I would PM waiting for the PM market to stabilize. Why buy now when the same dollars will buy more ounces, most likely, in the very near future? I can do this because I’m already PM protected. What about you?

Now, as for your crude question, oil that is. The situation in Egypt is stirring oil uncertainty and we can only speculate how this volatility will translate into pump prices. My guess, this is only a sign of the times and I’m personally not expecting cheaper pump prices anytime soon. Will rising crude prices drag PM prices up, very possible but not worth betting the farm, IMO?

Some economists believe a rising dollar index has more to do with the current price of precious metal far over anything else. I won’t disagree, but believe the PM decline we’ve watched since April of 2013 has as much to do with a paper PM sell-off dragging down physical values too. Regardless, both forces are only temporarily influential over the long term.

 

DC Carlton is founder of The Prospector Site and author of the Amazon Kindle #1 Bestsellers Why Silver and Gold Will Go Higher and Storing Silver & Gold. If you’re looking for trustworthy PM assistance feel free to contact DC regarding his personalized consulting service. TPS doesn’t sell silver or gold; we represent you, the buyer, looking for affordable precious metal from honest trustworthy sources. Feel free to register here for his free online newsletter that provides precious metal insight rarely mentioned from mainstream media sources.

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THE SILVER PRICE MYSTERY

BUYING GOLD/SILVER, GOLD & SILVER, SECURING GOLD & SILVER   No comments yet

Most folks completely misunderstand today’s silver market. Even more are unaware of the disconnect between physical metal and the highly leveraged paper promises, most commonly traded, thanks to large investment banks and bullion dealers. Oh sure, they believe silver’s spot offering (price) is relatively close to the physical silver market…… but they are mistaken (today we will prove just how unfortunate this is playing out to be). The PM crash in April of 2013 disrupted, maybe added is a better description, an alternative buying option, but this new option does come with a hefty price. If you’re one of the many silver hopefuls, and looking for immediate silver possession, please read today’s post closely. With that, welcome to the mysterious world of secondhand silver.

Lake Tahoe is one of the most unique lakes in North America. With 72 miles of shoreline and a depth of over 1600 feet, Lake Tahoe also has one other very unique characteristic. Although invisible to the eye, a state boundary runs through the middle of Lake Tahoe. Both California and Nevada lay claim to the pride of the Sierra Nevada mountain range.

Today’s silver market reminds this writer of Lake Tahoe because it too has an invisible barrier. The line between online physical silver for sale compared to cash-n-carry physical silver is now obvious. Let me explain it like this. A silver order placed today could take a month or longer to reach a nervous silver buyer; but an in-person silver transaction is immediate. The latter option is one our industry often calls the secondhand PM (precious metal) market.

Over 90% of the world’s investors view the price of silver in a paper dimension, as aforementioned. They see silver’s recent decline and say, “Thank goodness I didn’t invest in silver”, but not realizing paper silver is running a distant third in the great PM race of 2013. To expand this racing analogy, online physical silver (silver available to purchase but weeks or months until deliverable) is running a respectable second position.

Our silver runner in first place is our focus today. This, of course, includes all physical silver available in real time AND held by some entity willing to sell. The list shown below illustrates the mysterious three silver options of ownership priced in one ounce bullion.

1.  Paper silver. $24.00
2.  Online physical silver (back-ordered). $30.00
3.  On-demand secondhand physical silver. $34 – $37

No one knows when but it’s almost a sure bet that someday very soon silver buyers will have no other option than secondhand silver (most costly of all silver offerings) or speculate within the paper PM market. Sure some buyers will win the silver lottery with a limited opportunity to buy rationed online silver (Blanchard, Miles Franklin, Colorado Gold, etc) but this certainly will not be the norm. What will be normal is the realization of paying what the few willing to sell will accept.

It’s impossible to accurately estimate the additional premium for future secondhand silver. If I must, I would guess the secondhand silver market will soon escalate to a 100% premium over spot (or paper value) and then eventually reach a constant somewhere around 500% to 1000%, over silver’s spot offering, just as our economy reaches the epicenter of economic correction. I only base this estimation on the similarity between 2008s silver market to today’s – realizing the world’s fiat currencies then are nowhere close to today’s level of printing.

Please take one more glance at the three options listed above because 99% of the folks contemplating silver, but yet to own any, STILL BELIEVE THEY CAN PURCHASE AN UNLIMITED AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL SILVER FOR $24 PER OUNCE. This miscalculation will become more costly from here forward.

Precious metals are an unsolvable mystery. Today’s economic and political actions affect tomorrow’s silver availability. Then, a limited availability affects, or drives up, the price of physical silver. What affects the price of physical silver the least is paper silver. If you’re relatively new to silver please pay particularly close attention to the next sentence or two. The price of secondhand silver is worth it ESPECIALLY if new to physical silver. After some accumulation it is perfectly okay to purchase online physical metal (back ordered as I write this) while patiently waiting for its arrival.

QUESTION:  A large standup style safe will not work under my PM storage situation. Do you recommend using a bank box or passive method of storage in such a case? Thanks.

TPS Reply:  Not exactly but thanks for the question. My view of a secure PM storage plan includes using up to three storage options. I believe in taking a proactive approach to PM storage by thinking like a thief who is willing to part you from your metal. Most individuals storing silver and gold think in one dimension and this greatly concerns me. The right PM storage plan really does come down to each individual’s situation.

I recommend storing at least 1/3 of your PM within arm’s reach. This 1/3 can be stored many ways and a standup safe is one of but several options I recommend in Storing Silver & Gold. For less than $200 a security minded individual can purchase, and install, a compact safe perfect for securing what you’ve worked hard to amass (please check out Costco.com).

Bank boxes serve a limited purpose and I only recommend this storage option during extended travel or for the elderly uncomfortable with personally securing something like PMs within the home. BTW, don’t forget to insure all of your PM regardless how or where it’s stored. Thanks for the question and reading TPS.

COMMENT: Continuing to read and enjoy the straightforward approach at TPS.  I’m recommending TPS to anyone waking up to reality and wondering what is going on economically and how to protect themselves.

TPS Reply: Great, thanks for the recommendation. You mentioned something that caught my eye regarding protection. This really is about protection in an age when preservation is so important. So many complain about today’s fiscal insanity and all the economic and social volatility that accompanies such an age but few actually make a personal attempt to insulate themselves when possible.

I see the option to protect by way of PM as a closing window; even silver will soon become either too expensive for most or flat out unavailable. This is why I’m beating the PM drum ever so loudly while we still have choices to transfer our personal wealth beyond traditional avenues exposed to heavy taxation and capital controls.

Looking back……. I made a few PM mistakes by not knowing the best metal to buy and from whom. But each miscue led me to a new monetary understanding that now allows me to think for myself. My hope is each reader spending precious time with TPS develops this same understanding as well. Thanks for the comment.

BERNANKE WATCH:

The world’s most powerful man continues to tease our media with hints of slowing the printing pace, but those trusting PM know this is only lip service.  Unfortunately, our press repeats such nonsense without verification (see the quote below). Central bankers now realize economies worldwide depend on currency counterfeiting just to sustain today’s level of a failed economy AND support the millions who depend on some form of government assistance to live. There is zero chance quantitative easing will end anytime soon.

“A bigger-than-expected rise in tax receipts to Washington has improved the U.S. fiscal outlook, and the Treasury and private analysts have been taken by surprise by how quickly the deficit is shrinking. Belt tightening in the wake of the series of mandatory budget cuts worth $85 billion – known as the “sequester” – could further reduce federal borrowing needs if it doesn’t inflict lasting damage to the economy”.  Reuters May 2, 2013.

A bigger-than-expected rise in tax receipts is only beneficial under fiscal restraint. The latest housing boom, and then bust, provided both record levels of tax receipts and a continuance of record deficit borrowing. This means in good times or bad, the size of government grows regardless. Does anyone really believe a reduction in government spending will happen voluntarily or redirect government to live within their means?

Everything from funding pensions to printing food stamps now depends on the next level of debt creation to sustain itself. The thought of reducing debt, or a reduction in currency printing, is no longer an option. This fact alone will continue to create adverse economic conditions and cause PM prices to rise beyond what even the PM faithful can imagine.

 

DC Carlton is founder of The Prospector Site and author of the Amazon Kindle #1 Bestseller Why Silver and Gold Will Go Higher and Storing Silver & Gold. If you’re looking for trustworthy PM assistance feel free to contact DC regarding his personalized consulting service. TPS doesn’t sell silver or gold; we represent you, the buyer, looking for affordable precious metal from honest trustworthy sources. Feel free to register here for his free online newsletter that provides precious metal insight rarely mentioned from mainstream media sources.

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TOO MUCH SILVER?

BUYING GOLD/SILVER, GOLD & SILVER   No comments yet

The truth is sometimes those who preach the benefits of silver and gold repeat the same old same old. PMs (precious metals) do not have the exclusive on misinformation. Since the beginning of time hunters have exaggerated size of the beast or danger of the kill. Flash forward a few thousand years and the internet provides a breeding ground for the misinformed, this includes precious metal actuality. The challenge for you, the reader, is to sift through fact from fiction, bias from objective. This can be challenging for you and me. 

TPS (The Prospector Site) attracts those new to PM in search of more information in hopes of making prudent monetary decisions in an age of economic uncertainty. But some readers are more advanced, PM speaking, and present challenging questions to say the least. One such challenge leads us to ask if too much physical silver exists.

Let me begin by saying Happy New Year to all and thanks for spending a few minutes in search of PM accuracy. I commend each of you for making such a wise decision to at least explore the relativity of silver and gold today. We often discuss how to buy, what to buy and how to safely store silver/gold so feel free to dive into TPS archives for more info or email me, DC Carlton, if you prefer.

The question is how can we accurately compare silver availability to demand? In other words, is physical silver demand greater than mining output or potential output? Plus, is mining output supplemented by an increasing supply of scrap silver, as well? More importantly, how will production and demand effect the value of your stack of silver bullion, rounds or bars?

All great questions, all worthy of an answer, too. Unfortunately, not one person walking God’s green earth knows the answers to the above questions since even those spending a lifetime researching such issues disagree. So, this leaves us with only one last option but fortunately it’s the best option.  This is why we’ll do our best to answer the above questions by evaluating the facts.

Fact #1. Silver demand is very relative. Even so-called experts can only estimate future demand. These experts usually base such demand on trends more than anything else, and for one reason. You, my friend, are hard to figure out….monetarily speaking.

Demand is relative to so many things. I would have never believed America would re-elect a president (regardless political affiliation) who approved increasing the national deficit nearly as much in one term as all previous presidents…..impossible. This only proves how quickly opinions change once a society reaches a point of spending addiction.

Natural disaster experts will attest that folks under extreme adversity will eventually broaden opportunity in order to survive. Those with wealth will do exactly the same as they realize their vessel of wealth storage is at risk of sinking.

I still recall the meal in Beijing, China just a few short years ago listened to a couple of European land developers describe the mania of new construction along Spain’s coastline. Now, Spain suffers from catastrophic economic decline with millions taking to the streets.

It’s impossible to factor future demand as our world changes so quickly…..and awakens to the fact another option exists for wealth storage. The ability to trade currency for silver is a growing force more powerful than most imagine. So often we hear of overreaching government chipping away at civil liberties but few connect how a storage of PM wealth is the ultimate liberator.

The combination of sound money liberation and a second currency option fuels the demand side of silver as folks realize the US Dollar has reached retirement age. I only mention this because the USD has lost 95% of its value since the creation of our Federal Reserve Bank.

The world is on the verge of discovering the one currency not negatively affected by monetary debasement and fiscal irresponsibility.

Technology and silver you ask. Even those who support silver’s technological play underestimate silver’s true potential as our world connects via smart phones and tablets. This technology thirsts for silver even it’s only minuscule amounts at a time. TPS often mentions how silver and gold are off the radar but in today’s information age the power of silver and gold are soon uncontainable. The same devices made of silver also help spread the benefits of investing in physical silver.

Fact #2: Silver doesn’t care. Silver doesn’t care if it’s a great wealth equalizer for a central bank or a fellow living in Kansas City. Silver cares not who claws it from the ground or who buries it in their backyard. Silver is an emotionless opportunity of wealth preservation in an age of wealth destruction. Like our European developers, we like to assume silver will always be available but the facts say otherwise.

Latin America’s mining industry blazes in conflict. International mining corporations pour into Latin America but conflict arises when locals question fair wages and long-term environmental impact. It really comes down to greed as even the impoverished understand rising silver demand has the ability to pad empty pockets.

Raise your hand if you truly believe environmental issues will not grow more relevant worldwide. Clean air and water will prevail over mining compromise and this equals one simple outcome. It will grow harder, even in our technological age, to abstract hunks of silver from under the earth’s surface.

Last Words: Well, these are the facts folks. No matter how much silver rests below the ocean floor or planet’s surface it doesn’t change the impact of enormous demand. Silver is now under assault from technological components and from folks, like you, looking for sound money in an age of imaginary currency.  My opinion (yes I saved it for last), it’s impossible to have too much silver when 100% of the world’s currency is intrinsically worth zero.

 

 

DC Carlton is the founder of The Prospector Site and author of Why Silver and Gold Will Go Higher. Feel free to register here for his free online newsletter that provides precious metal insight rarely mentioned from mainstream media sources

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

 

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CONFISCATION: GUNS OR GOLD?

GOLD & SILVER, GOLD/SILVER CONFISCATION   No comments yet

Some of you noticed a correlation between rising physical metal demand and new gun sales. TPS believes this is by no means coincidence and this trend will continue. Today I want to focus on a issue on the minds of every person who practices independence and frowns upon a bigger overreaching government. We will address the odds of gun and gold confiscation and why I feel one asset has a greater possibility of confiscation than the other. Regardless, thanks for joining us today and feel free to share your take on such an important issue.

TPS readers own both gold/silver and guns. Most view firearm limitations as an intrusion of liberty and realize those who truly wish to harm others will find a way regardless the list of legal guns.  I don’t wish to turn today’s post into a gun debate, there are plenty of sites who will accommodate such debate with far more constitutional knowledge than this writer.

My goal today is to justify why the odds of gun confiscation grows with each passing day yet decreases for gold or silver. This may sound odd but the very government soon to confiscate guns across America really couldn’t care less that you own weapons.

This leads us to ask why then do I feel such a confiscation of guns as imminent? I’m glad you asked.

Many decades ago something changed in America. We went from a self sufficient society to one reliant on government. Our future handed over to programs like Social Security, our health to Medicare, and now our health care industry to politicians.

No longer do we have to rely on ourselves for food, shelter, water or clean air. We now have a government agency to “look after” our best interest in every aspect of our life. Hurricane hits, here comes FEMA. School shooting, here comes the FBI. But something unexpected came along with government protection; blame.

Americans now blame the government for today’s violent shootings taking place across the land. These same folks now demand government do something to end such horrible violence, almost as if it’s expected.

But government has no finesse. Government is a hammer used as a fly swat. This is why the bloodshed of first grade students will ultimately lead to such an outcry that government will quickly react if for no other reason than to squelch the outcry.

Some folks living in the USA are a generation or more removed from the power of our second amendment rights. They don’t own guns, they don’t understand guns, and worst yet they view guns as the problem. These same folks are in much need of a history lesson but few want to hear anything but an emotional solution to a complex problem.

The fact is as follows. The best hands to protect our children are the very hands in jeopardy of losing their gun rights.

 

What about silver & gold?

This same societal imbalance make silver and gold irrelevant today.  So-called safety net programs grow so large not all the gold privately held in America can make a monetary dent. Honestly, the giant we call government outgrew silver and gold long ago.

The odds of gold confiscation are extremely limited. Remember, we now have a reactionary minded government that only slams the hammer down when motivated by the emotions of the people. Right now, no one is crying out for the government to do something about the evil PM holders.

The power to print currency is the largest weapon in the world. This power is far more destructive than all weapons and yet more misunderstood than the human brain. Why spend time, lives, and effort to confiscate hunks of silver or gold when a central bank can digitally create a millions times its value in currency.

We live in a complex world in a trying time. Maybe this is why each person reading today should discretely own both the assets discussed today.

COMMENT: Hello, I have been following The Prospector Site and enjoyed your last post on true silver concerns.

I thought you may be interested in our recent piece “What Can 1 Ounce of Gold Buy“. This piece takes a visual dive on all of the things you could buy with an ounce of gold, ranging from Al Capone’s tax evasions, to the original island of Manhattan. Please feel free to contact me with any questions you might have.

TPS Reply: Very cool, I’ll pass it along.

QUESTION:  Why over the last two years are metal prices dropping at year’s end? Also, what’s your opinion on using a credit card to buy silver? Thanks.

TPS Reply:  Great question. The paper silver and gold market continues to provide buying opportunities for those that can look past temporary volatility. The paper PM markets have proven, once again, unregulated manipulation is what paper investors should expect. Soon physical metal will separate itself from paper and the difference will be in the form of rising premiums. My advice, do what I do and add you your PM stack while the discounting continues. Thanks.

Oh, the credit card part of the question. CCs are great for those looking for a temporary line of credit. Most PM brokers will pass CC fees to the buyer but the discount could be worth it. Try not to carry the balance any longer than necessary.

 

DC Carlton is the founder of The Prospector Site and author of Why Silver and Gold Will Go Higher. Feel free to register here for his free online newsletter that provides precious metal insight rarely mentioned from mainstream media sources

 

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WHAT IS SILVER’S FUTURE?

BUYING GOLD/SILVER, GOLD & SILVER, SECURING GOLD & SILVER   3 comments

Do you own physical silver? We track your comments and without doubt I will say most of you are buying or looking to buy silver. This is wise, in my opinion, for a number of reasons but it is nearly impossible to investigate silver and not read endless information regarding silver’s price manipulation. I won’t attempt to argue that silver’s price is not “managed” or manipulated. Please name one market in this day and age not manipulated, it’s just not possible. But, my point goes beyond managed silver since the fact is managed, or not, the value of silver is and will grow. Thanks for joining us today.

Below is an interesting chart showing silver with an annual gain of 29%. I’m not a big chart guy but this one certainly puts growth in perspective. Of course, this is only a projection.

Ted Butler knows as much about the silver market as any person on earth. His take is that our current suppression of silver began over 15 years ago. He also believes all things with monetary relevance begin and end with the value of silver. This article today is not to argue who or why someone so desires to retard silver’s value that they will risk years behind bars to do so. Why you ask?

Because suppressed, or not, silver continues to outpace gold, DOW and oil.

You already know that silver’s fluctuations will drive some folks insane. This is why TPS does everything possible to justify metal first all while hoping rationally minded individuals make monetary decisions with their minds…. not hearts. This doesn’t insinuate your stack of silver will not decline over the short term. Let me explain it like this. I have several young silver buyers on pace to prosper 30% from recent silver buys. I also have some readers who paid $48 per ounce and still far from even. Both buyers – if they stay the course – will greatly appreciate such prudence.

Silver and gold, too, are the few assets that benefit in times of turmoil, fear and greed. Can you think of anytime over the last few years with as much of the aforementioned? All currencies and countries have one thing in common as you read this, the race to devalue currency in order to stay more competitive in a time of economic duress. This is no different than more fighting over fewer pie pieces.

The downside to such effort is the declining value and purchasing power of those trusting such currency. The only benefactor, true benefactor, are the few assets folks view as safe or immune for such a destructive fiscal nature.

The “safe haven” list has declined to only a select few. Silver and gold rise as turmoil, fear and greed grow prevalent in an ever increasing age of economic uncertainty, JUSTIFIED OR NOT!!

Some who own physical silver are yet to understand the difference between physical and paper silver. Paper silver misleads some physical silver holders and this greatly concerns me. There is no possibility paper and physical metal will share the same stage in the future. The amazing race to all things “real” progresses as you read this. If you’re holding physical silver, or gold, then you are miles ahead, congrats.

Paper silver is a promise easily traded to someone who still believes in a word like “recovery”.  I recall one reader’s email asking the difference between paper and physical silver (“why the price difference” was the actual question, if I recall). The difference is possession, you hold physical silver. You don’t hold paper silver. This is why one costs more at time of purchase. Is possession worth paying an additional 10% over the paper silver market? You bet it is, especially for those new to precious metals.

Silver’s future is one of promise for those holding physical metal and one of great concern for those holding paper promises. Remember, all things real is the trend of tomorrow. To learn more about silver’s future be sure to check out Why Silver & Gold Will Go Higher released in 2012.

QUESTION: Okay, I’m a nervous first-time buyer so let’s get that out of the way. I made my first silver purchase from a bullion dealer you recommended and now waiting to take delivery. What is the best way for someone who doesn’t own a safe to store silver? I have no room or plans for a big safe since the safe would cost more than my silver. Any ideas?

TPS Reply: Good for you and congrats on the wise choice to trade cash for real money. I understand your situation since many readers also have no desire to buy a gun safe, either. You have a couple of options and I’m glad you’re addressing storage now rather than after the silver arrive.

Depending on size (amount of silver), a local bank box could suffice. Some in the PM industry discourage bank boxes but my opinion is that they have a place depending on a person’s situation. This is not to say things could change, quickly to boot, and justify removing your silver from the bank.

Regarding future silver or gold purchases, you might consider setting up an account with BullionVault or GoldMoney. This allows folks like you to own physical metal without the hassles of self storage. I still recommend storing at least 1/3 of your metal within reach…just in case. Thanks for the question.

 

 

 

 

 

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